For the last three years, Stampede Blue blogger and numbers wizard Matt Grecco (aka, mgrex03) has looked at an array of stats reaching across all aspects of the game. He found out which stats lead to the most wins (Drive Success Rate and Adjusted Net Passing Yards / Attempt), and which ones lead to the least wins (Yards / Carry and Net Punting Average), based on statistics from 2001 - 2011. Matt has had lots of time to figure out which stats we wanted to look at, and he is now ready to fully explain his methodology so that Stampede Blue can use his "Winning Stats" system to track the progress of the Colts.
This stats system is unique to Stampede Blue. We are not parroting tables and theories here from excellent sites like Football Outsiders. This is our stats system developed internally by Matt Grecco.
As you begin to dig into the numbers, you will see how Matt's analysis is scary good at spotting the winning factors. The numbers cut through the hype and get to the bottom of who is good and who is smoke and mirrors.
Throughout the season, we'll be tracking the Colts stats in each category, as well as bringing you Power Rankings, Strength of Schedule (both past and future), and Consistency Rankings each week.
Last Updated: 11 December, 2012 (click on headers to sort)
Season Stats - Non-Adjusted:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 74.1% | 9 | Patriots | 73.2% | 25 | Bears | 75-11 | 0.872 |
| ANPY/A | 5.533 | 21 | Patriots | 6.862 | 27 | Bears | 94-8 | 0.922 |
| Turnovers | 2.00 | 26 | Patriots | 0.77 | 31 | Bears | 85-20 | 0.810 |
| Yds/Drive | 34.30 | 9 | Patriots | 33.18 | 22 | Steelers | 62-17 | 0.785 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:47.1 | 11 | Seahawks | 2:38.9 | 13 | Texans | 78-20 | 0.796 |
| Yds/Play | 5.377 | 20 | Redskins | 5.875 | 26 | 49ers | 59-23 | 0.720 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 54.1% | 26 | Saints | 65.7% | 31 | Cardinals | 80-19 | 0.808 |
| First Downs/Drive | 2.11 | 2 | Patriots | 1.84 | 20 | Texans | 61-23 | 0.726 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 44.9% | 3 | Patriots | 39.1% | 16 | Texans | 71-24 | 0.747 |
| Avg Start Pos | 24.1 | 32 | Giants | 26.1 | 8 | Patriots | 78-25 | 0.757 |
| 3 and Outs | 2.54 | 6 | Patriots | 2.85 | 23 | Texans | 63-22 | 0.741 |
| RZ Eff | 69.6% | 13 | Buccaneers | 75.1% | 29 | Seahawks | 71-29 | 0.710 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.379 | 3 | Patriots | 5.648 | 10 | Texans | 54-30 | 0.643 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.703 | 4 | Falcons | 1.247 | 1 | Colts | 61-34 | 0.642 |
| RB Success | 44.5% | 19 | Patriots | 43.9% | 10 | 49ers | 54-55 | 0.495 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.87 | 23 | Vikings | 4.71 | 28 | Buccaneers | 53-52 | 0.505 |
| Overall | 12 | Patriots | 25 | Bears | ||||
Season Stats - Adjusted:
| Statistic | Offense | Rank | Best | Defense | Rank | Best | Record | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DSR | 71.1% | 13 | Patriots | 73.6% | 31 | Bears | 75-11 | 0.872 |
| ANPY/A | 4.980 | 21 | Patriots | 6.935 | 28 | Bears | 94-8 | 0.922 |
| Turnovers | 2.08 | 25 | 49ers | 0.83 | 32 | Bears | 85-20 | 0.810 |
| Yds/Drive | 31.34 | 12 | Patriots | 33.85 | 30 | Steelers | 62-17 | 0.785 |
| ToP/Drive | 2:48.0 | 12 | Seahawks | 2:48.0 | 22 | Texans | 78-20 | 0.796 |
| Yds/Play | 5.104 | 22 | Redskins | 5.878 | 31 | 49ers | 59-23 | 0.720 |
| Orange Zone Eff | 51.1% | 24 | Saints | 62.1% | 31 | Giants | 80-19 | 0.808 |
| First Downs/Drive | 1.93 | 4 | Patriots | 1.85 | 26 | Cardinals | 61-23 | 0.726 |
| 3rd/4th Down | 42.9% | 7 | Patriots | 40.0% | 22 | Texans | 71-24 | 0.747 |
| Avg Start Pos | 26.7 | 32 | Giants | 28.5 | 7 | 49ers | 78-25 | 0.757 |
| 3 and Outs | 3.30 | 9 | Patriots | 3.17 | 29 | Cardinals | 63-22 | 0.741 |
| RZ Eff | 67.0% | 15 | Buccaneers | 73.5% | 30 | Bears | 71-29 | 0.710 |
| Plays/Drive | 6.166 | 3 | Patriots | 5.761 | 21 | Cardinals | 54-30 | 0.643 |
| Penalty Yds / Play | 0.691 | 5 | Falcons | 1.222 | 1 | Colts | 61-34 | 0.642 |
| RB Success | 41.4% | 22 | Patriots | 41.0% | 5 | 49ers | 54-55 | 0.495 |
| Yds/Carry | 3.86 | 22 | Vikings | 4.46 | 26 | Buccaneers | 53-52 | 0.505 |
| Overall | 13 | Patriots | 32 | Bears | ||||
Power Rankings:
| Team | Power Rankings | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | |||||
| Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 49ers | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Patriots | 1 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 2 |
| Broncos | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Seahawks | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| Texans | 15 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 5 |
| Bears | 22 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 6 |
| Giants | 6 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| Packers | 10 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 8 |
| Redskins | 4 | 26 | 14 | 3 | 23 | 9 |
| Lions | 11 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| Falcons | 5 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
| Steelers | 18 | 6 | 10 | 22 | 6 | 12 |
| Ravens | 17 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 13 |
| Buccaneers | 14 | 20 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 14 |
| Cowboys | 7 | 23 | 15 | 6 | 24 | 15 |
| Bengals | 16 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| Panthers | 13 | 27 | 19 | 11 | 21 | 17 |
| Rams | 24 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| Saints | 9 | 32 | 21 | 9 | 29 | 19 |
| Chargers | 19 | 16 | 18 | 23 | 18 | 20 |
| Vikings | 23 | 21 | 28 | 19 | 22 | 21 |
| Eagles | 20 | 22 | 25 | 18 | 25 | 22 |
| Browns | 30 | 8 | 20 | 30 | 8 | 23 |
| Jets | 29 | 10 | 23 | 29 | 10 | 24 |
| Cardinals | 32 | 3 | 26 | 32 | 2 | 25 |
| Dolphins | 26 | 18 | 24 | 27 | 19 | 26 |
| Colts | 12 | 25 | 17 | 13 | 32 | 27 |
| Bills | 21 | 24 | 27 | 21 | 27 | 28 |
| Titans | 27 | 31 | 31 | 25 | 28 | 29 |
| Chiefs | 28 | 28 | 30 | 28 | 30 | 30 |
| Raiders | 25 | 30 | 29 | 26 | 31 | 31 |
| Jaguars | 31 | 29 | 32 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
Strength of Schedule:
| Team | Schedule Strength | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Past | Future |
|||||
| Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| Rams | 1 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| Panthers | 8 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 30 |
| Cardinals | 13 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Cowboys | 6 | 8 | 4 | 24 | 7 | 15 |
| Giants | 18 | 2 | 5 | 16 | 12 | 12 |
| Seahawks | 2 | 20 | 6 | 17 | 4 | 8 |
| Packers | 4 | 13 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 20 |
| Vikings | 3 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 9 |
| Saints | 16 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 13 | 16 |
| Redskins | 15 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 21 | 19 |
| Eagles | 7 | 10 | 11 | 20 | 2 | 10 |
| Lions | 12 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 28 | 7 |
| 49ers | 5 | 21 | 13 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| Bears | 26 | 5 | 14 | 6 | 19 | 11 |
| Jets | 11 | 12 | 15 | 31 | 24 | 32 |
| Buccaneers | 31 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 11 | 14 |
| Dolphins | 14 | 19 | 17 | 29 | 17 | 27 |
| Titans | 22 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 32 | 29 |
| Chiefs | 20 | 22 | 19 | 28 | 15 | 25 |
| Ravens | 21 | 24 | 20 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Falcons | 28 | 15 | 21 | 13 | 6 | 5 |
| Raiders | 10 | 29 | 22 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| Broncos | 30 | 14 | 23 | 14 | 30 | 23 |
| Jaguars | 27 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 16 | 24 |
| Patriots | 9 | 30 | 25 | 15 | 25 | 22 |
| Bills | 17 | 28 | 26 | 9 | 27 | 21 |
| Chargers | 23 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 31 | 31 |
| Steelers | 24 | 26 | 28 | 12 | 20 | 17 |
| Texans | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 9 | 26 |
| Browns | 32 | 17 | 30 | 11 | 3 | 4 |
| Bengals | 19 | 31 | 31 | 10 | 18 | 13 |
| Colts | 29 | 32 | 32 | 4 | 29 | 18 |
Consistency:
| Team | Consistency | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | |||||
| Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| Lions | 17 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1 | 1 |
| Cowboys | 10 | 30 | 1 | 16 | 31 | 2 |
| Buccaneers | 13 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 3 |
| Browns | 18 | 24 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 4 |
| Broncos | 21 | 7 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 5 |
| Saints | 20 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 2 | 6 |
| Colts | 2 | 11 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| Panthers | 32 | 10 | 9 | 32 | 18 | 8 |
| Patriots | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 9 |
| Chiefs | 24 | 22 | 3 | 21 | 29 | 10 |
| Chargers | 25 | 8 | 22 | 17 | 4 | 11 |
| Rams | 11 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| Jaguars | 7 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 17 | 13 |
| Raiders | 5 | 27 | 18 | 18 | 23 | 14 |
| Bears | 31 | 20 | 30 | 30 | 10 | 15 |
| Steelers | 26 | 16 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 16 |
| Cardinals | 1 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| Texans | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 18 |
| Redskins | 4 | 5 | 20 | 7 | 14 | 19 |
| Bills | 12 | 31 | 28 | 11 | 30 | 20 |
| Dolphins | 27 | 13 | 16 | 31 | 9 | 21 |
| Eagles | 16 | 26 | 12 | 19 | 28 | 22 |
| Bengals | 9 | 17 | 25 | 5 | 22 | 23 |
| Falcons | 23 | 25 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 24 |
| Ravens | 28 | 18 | 24 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
| Packers | 8 | 23 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 26 |
| Jets | 30 | 28 | 32 | 24 | 5 | 27 |
| Vikings | 15 | 3 | 21 | 4 | 13 | 28 |
| Seahawks | 14 | 32 | 27 | 15 | 32 | 29 |
| Titans | 29 | 15 | 29 | 25 | 19 | 30 |
| Giants | 22 | 12 | 23 | 29 | 25 | 31 |
| 49ers | 19 | 21 | 31 | 28 | 26 | 32 |
Colts Week-by-Week Rankings:
| Colts | Opponent | Non-Adjusted | Adjusted | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week | Offense | Defense | Total | Offense | Defense | Total | |
| 1 | Bears | 313 | 276 | 345 | 191 | 310 | 278 |
| 2 | Vikings | 212 | 296 | 277 | 254 | 315 | 341 |
| 3 | Jaguars | 162 | 151 | 113 | 222 | 314 | 310 |
| 4 | BYE | ||||||
| 5 | Packers | 188 | 143 | 123 | 159 | 111 | 86 |
| 6 | Jets | 318 | 382 | 398 | 318 | 413 | 412 |
| 7 | Browns | 108 | 298 | 190 | 76 | 376 | 252 |
| 8 | Titans | 45 | 359 | 193 | 70 | 394 | 264 |
| 9 | Dolphins | 31 | 339 | 160 | 37 | 397 | 221 |
| 10 | Jaguars | 88 | 60 | 27 | 145 | 175 | 132 |
| 11 | Patriots | 209 | 410 | 381 | 213 | 355 | 349 |
| 12 | Bills | 180 | 164 | 138 | 270 | 185 | 249 |
| 13 | Lions | 267 | 175 | 242 | 274 | 141 | 201 |
| 14 | Titans | 225 | 176 | 196 | 307 | 241 | 334 |