Stampede Blue - Degenerate Gambling: 2012 NFL Week 5 Picks Round-UpAn Indianapolis Colts bloghttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/29818/stampedeblue_fave.png2012-10-05T11:29:39-04:00http://www.stampedeblue.com/rss/stream/32242752012-10-05T11:29:39-04:002012-10-05T11:29:39-04:00Peyton Vs. Brady - Cue The Dramatic Music!
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<p>Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold for his second week of spread-killing picks. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. Going 2-1 last week on his top picks, let's see how he fares in this week's action!</p> <p><i>[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer </i><a href="http://www.stampedeblue.com/authors/chris-price" target="_blank">Christopher Price</a><i> into the fold for his second week of spread-killing picks. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. Going 2-1 last week on his top picks, let's see how he fares in this week's action!]</i></p>
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<h3>Broncos (2-2) @ Patriots (2-2)</h3>
<h4>Pick – Broncos (+7)</h4>
<h4>Rock Solid Pick: Four Stars (Out of Five)</h4>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family:"></span><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">In what is shaping up to be a wet and rainy Sunday afternoon in Foxboro, two teams are looking to face off right at the same time that both of their respective offenses seem to be coming together and hitting their strides. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">Although the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.patspulpit.com/">New England Patriots</a> (2-2) started off shaky last week in Buffalo, I still recall turning to my cousin immediately after a 68-yard touchdown grab from Bills WR <span>Donald Jones</span>, bringing the Buffalo ahead 21-7 with 11:08 left in the 3</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">rd</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; "> quarter, and saying, "It doesn’t matter, it’s <span>Tom Brady</span> – I still think the Pats cover." And boy, did they ever wake up and do much, much more than just cover! The Patriots began scoring five unanswered touchdowns, topping the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.buffalorumblings.com/">Buffalo Bills</a> (2-2) in a crucial divisional game, 52-28 - led by their franchise QB Tom Brady (102.4 QB Rating – 1,227 YDS, 1 INT, 7 TD’s).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">What came out of my mouth next is the part that further leads me to believe the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.milehighreport.com/">Denver Broncos</a> (2-2) have just that much more going for them in this week’s match-up. After sharing how I felt about the Patriots still covering the point-spread, I then said, "There’s only one other quarterback I’d rather have in this position and that’s <span>Peyton Manning</span>." Having a much more difficult beginning of his season and facing far better defensive units in Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Houston, QB Peyton Manning (96.9 QB Rating – 1,162 YDS, 3 INT’s, 8 TD’s) has shown me that he still has the tenacity and overall skills needed to get the job done. If you watched the Broncos completely dismantle the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/oakland-raiders">Oakland Raiders</a> (1-3) last week, you now understand that it’s not only Manning and company that do it on offense, it’s also the Broncos overall defensive play (13</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; "> in Passing YPG - 220.5 and 9</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; "> in Rushing YPG - 87.5) that has been as much a key to their success as the "laser rocket arm" of Manning. Add this to the fact that the Patriots secondary has been suspect of late, giving up 281.5 passing yards per game (25</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">) while also allowing sub-par quarterbacks to find holes in their zone coverage so far this season and everything adds up to a big day for Manning and the Broncos.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">As long as Denver can get somewhat of a grasp on the top-notch receiving unit that New England has pieced together, namely stopping WR’s <span>Brandon Lloyd</span>’s (25 REC, 287 YDS, 1 TD) deep routes, <span>Wes Welker</span> (25 REC, 380 YDS, 0 TD’s) from his short, cross-field patterns and TE <span>Rob Gronkowski</span> (19 REC, 260 YDS, 3 TD’s) from his quick streaks down the middle of the field, I can see Denver pulling this game off without the points, never mind getting a touchdown for their traveling troubles. Alongside those hopes is RB <span>Willis McGahee</span> (69 ATT, 325 YDS, 3 TD’s), attempting to make his second </span><i style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">real</i><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; "> appearance in as many weeks. That is, of course, if DT <span>Vince Wilfork</span> decides to stay away and promises to never hit anyone the way he trucked Bills receiver Donald Jones last week – mother of God! (I’d say it’s safe to assume that Jones ate dinner through a straw Sunday evening.) </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal">*In case you missed the Wilfork hit on Jones: <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N606Knnr_kY" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N606Knnr_kY</a></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; ">Both Manning and Brady are far too intelligent and know one another all too well to come into Sunday’s game unprepared. While Denver is eager to win on the road and has all the tools to do so, New England simply cannot afford to drop another game at home. Speaking of Sunday's game, can someone please tell me why in the holy hell this isn't a primetime match-up?! I don't care what kind of potential they felt the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/san-diego-chargers">Chargers</a> vs. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.canalstreetchronicles.com/">Saints</a> game had, this is Manning vs. Brady, people! You know, sometimes the NFL could screw up a wet dream, I swear. Anyway, the fact that bookmakers are giving up a full touchdown to Denver shocks me, to be honest. You're telling me with what you've seen so far this season that you're going to give Peyton Manning a full 7-point head start to a Patriots team who hasn't proven a damn thing in over a month and you're not going to take it?! Pshhhh! If you're that naive, I've got some oceanfront property for sale in Indianapolis.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"><span style="line-height: 9px;">Let's see how Tom</span> Brady feels about all of this talk of Manning and the Broncos coming into Foxboro to do work...</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/TOM-BRADY-FUCK-YOU-BITCHES.gif" target="_blank">http://gif.mocksession.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/TOM-BRADY-FUCK-YOU-BITCHES.gif</a><span style="font-family:"></span></p>
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<p><b>Just So Ya' Know:</b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b></b></p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in;"> Manning is 4-2 in last 6 meetings against Brady (4-8 all-time)</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in; font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; "> Including the post-season, the last 5 Manning-Brady games have been decided by 7-points or less</span></li>
<li> <span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in; "> Broncos are outscoring opponents 79-26 in 2</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in; ">nd</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in; "> half of games</span> </li>
<li><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in;"> Patriots have not lost back-to-back home games since 2008 (<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.ganggreennation.com/">Jets</a>/<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/">Steelers</a>)</span></li>
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https://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/10/5/3452674/2012-nfl-week-five-picks-denver-broncos-at-new-england-patriotsPricetopher2012-10-05T11:28:38-04:002012-10-05T11:28:38-04:00Pick of the Week: Texans Vs. That Other N.Y. Team
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<p>Stampede Blue welcomes new writer Christopher Price into the fold for his second week of spread-killing picks. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. Going 2-1 last week on his top picks, let's see how he fares in this week's action!]</p> <p><i>[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer </i><a href="http://www.stampedeblue.com/authors/chris-price" target="_blank">Christopher Price</a><i> into the fold for his second week of spread-killing picks. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. Going 2-1 last week on his top picks, let's see how he fares in this week's action!]</i></p>
<h4>Texans (4-0) @ Jets (2-2)</h4>
<h4>Pick – Texans (-7.5)</h4>
<h4>Pick of the Week: FIVE STARS!!!</h4>
<p><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Watching QB <span>Mark Sanchez</span> (69.6 QB Rating - 813 YDS, 5 TD's, 4 INT's) attempt to lead this <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.ganggreennation.com/">New York Jets</a> (2-2) franchise week after week has left much to be desired, to put it lightly. Maybe this is the week that the Jets get over the hump, get it turned around and... ahhh, hell... the <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.battleredblog.com/">Houston Texans</a> (4-0) are headed into town - never mind.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">If you were looking forward to a great start of the 2012 season for the Jets - you know, the same way ESPN and Rex Ryan over-hyped them since January - those hopes were quickly crushed when New York allowed the San Francisco 49’ers (3-1) to come into Met Life Stadium this past Sunday and showcased a 34-0 routing while taking the team’s leading WR <span>Santonio Holmes</span> (20 REC, 272 YDS, 1 TD) with them. San Francisco’s defense was as good as everyone expected; now allow me to introduce you to a Texans franchise who can shut down both the run (11</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> – 90.3 YPG) and the pass (2</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">nd</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> – 182.8 YPG) in impressive fashion while putting up numbers in bunches (31.5 PPG).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">As everyone discusses Houston’s offensive power with their duo of workhorse RB’s <span>Arian Foster</span> (103 ATT, 380 YDS, 4 TD’s) and <span>Ben Tate</span> (30 ATT, 117 YDS, 2 TD’s), combined with the leadership of QB <span>Matt Schaub</span> (105.3 QB Rating - 953 YDS, 1 INT, 7 TD’s) and further complimented by their premier WR <span>Andre Johnson</span> (16 REC, 268 YDS, 2 TD’s) and TE <span>Owen Daniels</span> (19 REC, 232 YDS, 2 TD’s), I feel it's the defense that is going to be the key in covering the spread in New York. Consider it a good thing that no one expects anything from Sanchez’s passing game because he’s definitely not going to change any minds this week when facing a pass defense that'd make the two fine gentlemen playing in Foxboro this weekend lose sleep</span><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">. Oh, and being the "talk of the town" throughout the sports world, we now want to spotlight the Texans on Monday Night Football? Game over.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Last week Sanchez looked extremely off - even for Sanchez. I’m not sure if the route-running was poorly timed, if no one on the team (offense or defense) were on the same page, if girlfriend Eva Longoria kept Sanchez up too late on Pinterest or if it’s simply his time to finally take a back seat and allow QB <span>Tim Tebow</span> to take the reigns at this point?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Whatever it is, let’s be honest - Sanchez is no leader. He’s not your come-from-behind quarterback. He’s not your scrambler out of the pocket. He’s not your deep threat, downfield passer. He’s not your athlete who simply makes things happen when he needs to. He’s… well... he's Mark Sanchez - a sub-par quarterback trying to fill a starter’s role. He could only hide behind a great defense for a few years – without CB <span>Darrelle Revis</span> he seems even more lackluster. Now, you’re asking this man to do the seemingly impossible without their key receiver on the field? C’mon, man… that sh*t cray!</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Don’t let the half-point, thoughts of a breakout game by the Jets or being on the road while on MNF scare you – sometimes it’s as simple as it seems. Take the Texans to cover - like they've been doing the entire season... yes, they're <i>that</i> good!</span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b>Just So Ya' Know:</b></p>
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<li><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in;">Texans are 4-0 ATS this season</span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in;">Texans are 7-0-1 ATS in last 8-games following SU win of 14-points or more </span></li>
<li><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in;">Jets are 5-0 all-time vs. Texans</span></li>
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https://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/10/5/3452780/2012-nfl-week-five-pick-of-the-week-texans-at-jetsPricetopher2012-10-04T20:21:52-04:002012-10-04T20:21:52-04:00NFL Picks: Long Flight Home For Cardinals?
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> </span><i>[Editor's Note: Stampede Blue welcomes new writer </i><a target="_blank" href="http://www.stampedeblue.com/authors/chris-price">Christopher Price</a><i> into the fold for his second week of spread-killing picks. Christopher knows a thing or three about sports betting... ask Vegas. Going 2-1 last week on his top picks, let's see how he fares in this week's action!]</i></p>
<h3>Cardinals (4-0) @ Rams (2-2)</h3>
<h4>Pick – Rams (+2)</h4>
<h4>Good Call: Three Stars (Out of Five)</h4>
<p><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">I'd be lying if I said that once I first saw this line a few days ago that I wasn't confused as to why the </span><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/" style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Arizona Cardinals</a><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> (4-0) weren't at least 6-point favorites to the </span><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/teams/st-louis-rams" style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">St. Louis Rams</a><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> (2-2). Then, after watching more snippets of last week's OT game against Miami, while crunching the numbers as hard as humanly possible, it got me to the realization that the Rams have exactly what it takes to pull this kind of game off and "stun" so many people way out West. I know for many of you this may take some convincing, but stay patient and hear me out.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">For those who have recently began following my picks and listening to my rants (yes, both of you), it’s common knowledge that I feel the Cardinals are pretenders amongst the list of undefeated teams in the NFL – hell, or just overall. Their lack of offense and ranks amongst the bottom-feeders in the league is a huge reason behind why I'm such a skeptic. When examining their passing offense (25</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> – 203.0 YPG) combined with the inability to run the ball (29</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> – 68.0 YPG), you may not be able to stop asking yourself how, in fact, they’re 4-0?! The only thing I can come up with is the trifecta of a good defense, luck and prayer. How else can you explain averaging only 307 yards of total offense throughout 4-games and not dropping one? Let’s be honest – the <a href="https://www.fieldgulls.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Seahawks</a> have virtually zero offense, the <a href="https://www.patspulpit.com/" class="sbn-auto-link">Patriots</a> played terribly and missed a chip-shot for the win, Philadelphia went 1-5 in the red zone and Miami throttled them up and down the field all game long. Don’t get me wrong, I understand that they have a solid defensive unit, but let’s not be too quick to give them all of the credit for their record. Again, we must remember that there’s also a lot of luck and prayer that’s gone into this, too. How much? We’ll never be certain.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><font face="Adobe Caslon Pro">Furthermore, with QB <span>Kevin Kolb</span> (97.6 QB Rating - 752 YDS, 7 TD’s, 2 INT’s) having mid-level numbers and starting off undefeated, it may also be difficult to understand why he has been drawing so much skepticism from fans so far this season. It comes down to his inability to take leadership and look comfortable throwing the football. No matter who you are, if WR <span>Larry Fitzgerald</span> (22 REC, 245 YDS, 0 TD’s) is wearing the same jersey, it’s ok to have faith in your Pro-Bowl receiver and throw up a jump-ball every now and again instead of over-thinking it and collecting 8 sacks like Kolb did against Miami. Plain and simple, Kolb was replaced at the beginning of the season by QB <span>John Skelton</span> (out since week 1 with an ankle injury) for a reason; but once you retain that starting position, you should probably take charge of your team, show some confidence and… wait for it... LOOK LIKE A STARTER! None of the aforementioned being Kolb's forte. </font></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">I haven’t even began to mention the inability Arizona’s offense has running the ball </span><u style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"><i>with</i></u><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> RB Beanie Wells (29 ATT, 76 YDS, 0 TD’s) in the starting spot. But, now they must try moving the ball on the ground in their second game </span><u style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"><i>without</i></u><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> their starter, relying on RB Ryan Williams (44 ATT, 131 YDS, 0 TD’s) to carry the load? Oh, hell no! Whether facing a good rushing defense or not, Williams compiled only 26 yards on 13 carries last week against Miami – dreadful numbers, especially when the passing scheme looks to be virtually non-existent. Those stats aren't even good enough to make the varsity football team at my podunk high school! I mean, ummm... GO, TIGERS!</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">On the Rams side of the ball, I look for RB Steven Jackson (59 ATT, 195 YDS, 0 TD’s) to finally have a breakout performance – by "breakout" I mean topping that elusive 60-yard mark that he’s yet to find in his first 4-games of the season. Given the shortened week, I think St. Louis should look for QB <span>Sam Bradford</span> (80.1 QB Rating - 881 YDS, 4 INT’s, 4 TD’s) to rely on mostly quick, screen-type passes to WR’s <span>Danny Amendola</span> (31 REC, 351 YDS, 2 TD’s) and <span>Brandon Gibson</span> (10 REC, 151 YDS, 2 TD’s). The Rams can help improve their extremely low passing stats (28</span><sup style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">th</sup><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';"> – 196.5 YPG) by allowing Jackson to first open up the run game and then exploit whatever holes they can find in Ray Horton’s 3-4 defense - who looked extremely tired and worn out towards the end of Sunday’s match-up with Miami.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Finally, and probably most importantly, is K <span>Greg Zuerlein</span>’s (12/12 FG, 5/5 XP) 3 Wood that he has for a leg. Yes, out of Kolb, Fitzgerald, Bradford, Jackson and Amendola, I think the weight of this game falls directly on the success of "Zipline" Zuerlein’s (copyright pending) so far perfect season. When a team’s offense is needing help putting points on the board and can rely on their rookie kicker to not only hit 58 and 60-yarders in the same game, but to also throw a touchdown pass to boot; I think it’s safe to say he’s a crucial part of this team's overall success.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Traveling cross-country after an overtime game to play on Rams’ turf (where they're unbeaten on the season) for St. Louis’ first primetime game of the season, all while giving up points is just too much for anyone, let alone a team whose already on their backup RB and QB. As happy as I am to say it, your borrowed time is up and it’s time for your long, steep fall from grace, Arizona. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 0px;"><b>Just So Ya' Know</b>:</p>
<ul>
<li><span style="font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro'; text-indent: -0.25in;">Rams are 3-1 ATS this season</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in; font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Rams are 2-0 at home this season</span></li>
<li><span style="text-indent: -0.25in; font-family: 'Adobe Caslon Pro';">Cardinals 3rd consecutive road game</span></li>
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https://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/10/4/3452472/2012-nfl-week-five-picks-arizona-cardinals-at-st-louis-ramsPricetopher